polling

Poll: Challenger Spanberger Inches Ahead of Rep. Dave Brat
Democrat takes lead after GOP-aligned group releases her unredacted security clearance info

Republican Rep. Dave Brat is in a tight race with Democrat Abigail Spanberger in Virginia's 7th District. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The race for Rep. Dave Brat’s bid for a third term in Virginia’s 7th District appears to be tightening, according to a new Monmouth University poll that shows the conservative House Freedom Caucus member trailing former CIA officer Abigail Spanberger by 5 points.

Spanberger captured support from 47 percent of the 400 potential voters pollsters surveyed by phone from Sept. 15 through Sept. 24. Brat garnered 42 percent support among potential voters — which the Monmouth poll characterizes as voters who have participated in at least one election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents roughly nine in 10 of all registered voters in the district).

Mia Love Says Democrats Attacking Her Because She’s a Black, Republican Woman
Rhetoric in race for Utah’s 4th District heating up as campaigns attack each other in ads

Utah Republican Rep. Mia Love and Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams are stepping up the personal attacks ahead of their tightly contested election for Utah's 4th District. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

GOP Rep. Mia Love has a theory for why the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic National Committee are targeting her seat — and it’s not because her Democratic opponent, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, has pulled within single digits in numerous polls this summer.

It’s because, she said in an interview on Fox News radio Monday, she is black, Republican, and successful.

Women and Men Disagree on Kavanaugh After Sexual Assault Allegation
Poll finds sharp gender difference in views of Supreme Court nominee

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, shown here with his wife Ashley, and daughters Margaret, left, and Liza, has been portrayed as a champion of young women. In the aftermath of a sexual assault allegation, though, women are not so sure, a new poll finds. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Americans became sharply divided on Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh in the days after a woman came forward accusing him of a drunken sexual assault while they were teenagers, according to a nonpartisan poll released Wednesday.

The fault line fell along gender. Forty percent of male respondents to an Economist/YouGov poll had a somewhat or very favorable opinion of Kavanaugh versus just 26 percent of women.

What Constitutes a Wave Election?
With half of independents still up for grabs, a blue wave is not a foregone conclusion

Democrats may be predicting a blue wave, but surveys show many independents are still up for grabs and Republicans could yet win that battle of ideas, Winston writes. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

OPINION — Is 2018 going to be a wave election? The better question is: “What constitutes a wave election?”

In a CNN interview last week, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told Christiane Amanpour, “People ask me, is this a tsunami or is it wave? And I said, in neither case, it’s many drops of water and it’s all very close. So it won’t be a big margin, it will be small margins in many races that will produce the victory.”

Rep. Scott Taylor Falling Behind Challenger After Ballot Forgery Scandal, Democratic Poll Shows
Democrat Elaine Luria is challenging freshman lawmaker in Virginia’s 2nd District

An internal poll for Democrat Elaine Luria showed her leading Rep. Scott Taylor in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about Taylor’s role in a fraudulent ballot petition scandal. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

Democrat Elaine Luria led Rep. Scott Taylor by 8 points in Virginia’s 2nd District amid lingering questions about the Republican lawmaker’s role in a ballot signature scandal, according to an internal poll released by Luria’s campaign Tuesday.

The survey, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, gave the Navy veteran a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over Taylor. A June survey by the same firm showed her trailing by 4 points, the campaign said.

Democratic Poll Shows Tight Race for Ross’ Seat in Florida
Trump carried the 15th District by 10 points in 2016

Florida Rep. Dennis Ross is not running for re-election. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Democrat Kristen Carlson narrowly led Republican Ross Spano, well within the margin of error, in a poll of Florida’s open 15th District commissioned by her campaign. 

Carlson led Spano 48 percent to 47 percent, with 5 percent of likely voters undecided.

Surprisingly, the Senate Is Now in Play
Despite heavy odds stacked against them, Democrats are in the hunt

Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., must win her Arizona Senate race for Democrats to have a chance at winning back the chamber. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)

ANALYSIS — I have argued repeatedly that while the House is up for grabs — and indeed likely to flip to the Democrats in November — the Senate is not in play. I now believe that it is, so I must revise and extend my remarks.

Only about three weeks ago, I reiterated my view that Democrats didn’t have a path to a net gain of two Senate seats, which they need for a chamber majority. But a flurry of state and national polls conducted over the past few weeks suggest Democratic prospects have improved noticeably, giving the party a difficult but discernible route for control.

Why Voters Are Still Wary 10 Years After the Economic Collapse
Despite many positive economic signs, people have long memories

In the face of today’s extraordinary bull market and other positive economic signs, memories of the Great Recession remain strong for many voters, Winston writes. (Drew Angerer/Getty Images file photo)

OPINION — This September marks the 10th anniversary of the economic collapse and failure of Wall Street banks and companies. It recalls one of the most scarring events for Americans, as they remember the fears, anxieties and financial trauma that they, their family and friends, their communities, and the country as a whole experienced. 

In exit polls from the 2008 presidential election, 85 percent of voters said they were worried about the direction of the nation’s economy, with 50  percent “very worried.” Eighty-one percent said they feared that the economic crisis would harm their family’s finances over the next year, with almost half “very worried.” That level of personal concern about finances doesn’t go away overnight.

Cory Gardner Renews Call for Russia to Be Declared Sponsor of Terrorism After Reports on Sonic Attacks
Colorado Republican also wants floor time for Russia sanctions package

Sen. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., is making another push to declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism. (Sarah Silbiger/CQ Roll Call file photo)

A recent report that Russia is likely behind mysterious “sonic attacks” on U.S. diplomatic personnel in Cuba and China has led a Republican senator to renew his call to designate Russia a state sponsor of terror.

Sen. Cory Gardner has introduced legislation that would require the State Department to make such a determination about the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Rep. Mia Love’s Campaign Gamed Primary Fundraising Laws, FEC Finds
GOP congresswoman’s campaign will return or reclassify less than a third of funds called into question

Rep. Mia Love, R-Utah, improperly raised more than $1 million for a primary race she knew she would not have, the FEC contends. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Rep. Mia Love’s re-election campaign copped to improperly raising money for a primary race that it knew was unlikely to take place, the campaign’s lawyers wrote in a letter to the Federal Election Commission.

The GOP congresswoman’s campaign was responding to a letter from the FEC in which the commission scrutinized $1,153,624 Love raised and classified as primary election funds for her 4th District seat in Utah.