Campaigns

Beware confirmation bias with the 2020 presidential race
What’s the rush to declare the Democratic race a three-person contest?

Yes, it’s early in the 2020 presidential race to be making astute judgments, but certainly the early polling numbers for President Donald Trump are not what one would expect from an incumbent when the economy is healthy, Rothenberg writes.. (Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call)

OPINION — “The next debate is do or die for many Democratic hopefuls.”

Andrew Yang “is on fire.”

The ‘squad’ takes center stage in GOP attacks in 2019 state elections
Republican efforts appear to be test run for 2020 messaging strategy

Warnings that Democrats are aligned with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez appear prominently in Republican efforts this year to hold on to state legislative seats that could determine which party controls redistricting after the 2020 census. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Take a seat, Nancy Pelosi — you’ve been replaced.

For years, the California Democrat has been the cornerstone of Republican negative attack ads and campaign rhetoric against her party.

Local GOP groups seek to galvanize opposition to Riggleman for officiating same sex wedding
Congressman suspects political opportunism as the effort is being led by a consultant to former opponent

Rep. Denver Riggleman of Virginia's 5th District has attracted some opposition from local GOP groups for officiating a gay wedding between two former campaign volunteers. He has accused some local party leaders of opportunistic maneuvering. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Three Republican groups in Rep. Denver Riggleman’s district have voted to reprimand him in the weeks since he presided over a same sex wedding in July, triggering a strained debate about the Republican Party’s stance on same sex marriage in his Virginia district.

The efforts to censure Riggleman have been led in part by a consultant to an opponent to his 2018 nomination, a far-right social conservative, fueling speculation that some Republicans in his district are already laying the groundwork for a primary challenge in 2020.

Ex-Rep. Issa gets confirmation hearing, muddling potential comeback
California Republican indicated he might run in California's 50th District against incumbent GOP Rep. Hunter

Former Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., will sit for his confirmation hearing on Thursday. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Rep. Darrell Issa will finally appear before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a confirmation hearing Thursday on his nomination to be director of the U.S. Trade and Development Agency, casting uncertainty on his contingent plan of mounting a congressional comeback.

The California Republican, who represented San Diego County in the House for 18 years before retiring in January, was nominated by President Donald Trump for the administrative post last Sept. 19 — exactly a year before his confirmation hearing, scheduled for Thursday at 9:30 a.m.

Beto O’Rourke campaign reported Texas state lawmaker’s AR-15 tweet to FBI
Democratic 2020 presidential candidate says tweet was a death threat

Democratic presidential candidate and former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke speaks during Thursday’s debate in which he drew applause for saying “Hell yes, we are going to take your AR-15, your AK-47” in response to a question about gun violence. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke’s presidential campaign has reported a Texas state lawmaker’s tweet about him to the FBI as a death threat.

“Someone on the campaign ... contacted the FBI, contacted Twitter. Any time you have somebody threaten to use violence against somebody in this country to resolve a political issue, or really for any reason, that’s a matter for law enforcement,” O’Rourke said in an interview on CNN on Friday.

Wrote the bill, read the bill: Lawmakers dominate Democratic debate
All but three of the candidates on Thursday's debate stage have served in Congress

Democratic presidential hopefuls Former Vice President Joe Biden, center, speaks as Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, left, and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren listen during the third Democratic primary debate of the 2020 presidential campaign season hosted by ABC News in partnership with Univision at Texas Southern University in Houston, Texas on Thursday. (Robyn Beck/AFP/Getty Images)

Although the 10 Democratic presidential candidates in Thursday night’s debate talked about the importance of unity, they spent plenty of time trying to one-up each other with their own congressional records.

The debate stage was stacked with current or former members of Congress: only businessman Andrew Yang, former Housing and Urban Development secretary Julián Castro and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg of Indiana have never served in Congress.

GOP group defends ad showing burning image of AOC during Democratic debate
Elizabeth Heng said ad “is about fighting the socialist agenda”

New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez criticized as racist the ad by a new GOP group that ran during Thursday’s Democratic presidential debate. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

The founder of a new Republican group is defending an ad that aired during Thursday’s Democratic presidential debate that featured a burning image of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. The New York Democrat criticized the spot as racist. 

New Faces GOP was founded by Elizabeth Heng, who lost a House race in California last cycle. Heng, who is the PAC’s executive director, was featured in the 30-second TV ad, which ran both during and after the debate on ABC. 

Ted Cruz: A Trump deal with Democrats on gun control could lead conservatives to stay home in 2020
Depressed turnout ‘could go a long way to electing a President Elizabeth Warren,’ Texas Republican says

Sen. Ted Cruz is warning Republicans against deals with Democrats on guns that could depress conservative turnout in next year’s elections. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Sen. Ted Cruz is warning that President Donald Trump making a deal with Democrats on gun legislation might cause conservative voters to stay home in 2020.

“If Republicans abandon the Second Amendment and demoralize millions of Americans who care deeply about Second Amendment rights,” the Texas Republican said, “that could go a long way to electing a President Elizabeth Warren.”

North Carolina’s 9th District highlights trouble spots for both parties
McCready’s strength in Mecklenburg County underscores GOP’s suburban weakness

Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop won the special election in North Carolina’s 9th District on Tuesday. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Within eight minutes of each other Wednesday morning, the two House campaign committees blasted out dueling memos about what Republican state Sen. Dan Bishop’s 2-point victory in North Carolina’s 9th District means for the country’s political future.

The posturing was typical of reactions to special elections in the era of President Donald Trump. Publicly, at least, Republicans say everything is fine, while Democrats celebrate a narrow loss in a district that shouldn’t have been competitive. 

Lewandowski leads New Hampshire GOP Senate primary field, poll finds
Former Trump campaign manager trails Democratic Sen. Shaheen by 10 points in hypothetical head-to-head matchup

Former Trump campaign chairman Corey Lewandowski is considering a run for U.S. Senate in New Hampshire. (Al Drago/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Trump campaign manager and political commentator Corey Lewandowski would lead a GOP primary for New Hampshire’s Senate seat, a new poll shows.

Lewandowski, the president’s first campaign manager in the 2016 election who helped him navigate a crowded GOP primary field, captured 23 percent support in a hypothetical primary race, an Emerson College poll released Tuesday found.

9 things I think I think after the North Carolina redo election
GOP efforts to hold 9th District unlikely to be replicated in other suburban races

Outside Republican groups helped Dan Bishop over the finish line in North Carolina’s 9th District, but replicating that effort in similar districts will not be possible, Gonzales writes. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Nearly a year after the two parties fought to a draw in North Carolina’s 9th District, Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready ended with another close race. Bishop prevailed 51 percent to 49 percent, with absentee ballots remaining to be counted.

A win is better than a loss (and the result affects the fight for the majority), but the overall lessons from the race should not be dramatically different whether a candidate finishes narrowly ahead or behind. And even if the results aren’t predictive, there are implications for the 2020 elections.

Republicans hold on to North Carolina’s 9th District in redo election
Outside GOP groups spent more than $6 million to boost nominee Dan Bishop

GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop won the redo election in North Carolina’s 9th District. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Republicans have narrowly held on to a North Carolina district that President Donald Trump won by 12 points in 2016. It’s a relief for a party already in the minority but not enough to ease GOP fears about slippage in the suburbs. 

With 95 percent of precincts reporting, GOP state Sen. Dan Bishop led Democrat Dan McCready 51 percent to 49 percent when The Associated Press called the race. 

Democrats line up to challenge David Perdue. But what about the other Georgia Senate seat?
Jon Ossoff announced his candidacy for the Senate on Tuesday

Jon Ossoff is running for Senate in Georgia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Georgia got another Senate candidate Tuesday — a familiar face who’s running in the same race that several Democrats are already running for.

Jon Ossoff, who lost the most expensive special House election in U.S. history, is challenging Republican incumbent David Perdue.

Issa on challenging fellow Republican Hunter: ‘He cannot win reelection’
California Republican represented adjacent district for 18 years, believes Hunter's legal troubles jeopardize GOP control of seat

Former Republican Rep. Darrell Issa has signaled he might come out of retirement to run in California’s 50th District, currently held by embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter. (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call file photo)

Former Rep. Darrell Issa signaled over the weekend that he intends to run for Congress in Rep. Duncan Hunter’s district if he is not confirmed to a position in the Trump administration by winter.

Issa and Hunter are both Republican.

GOP leadership lowers expectations for North Carolina special election
Republican House Whip Steve Scalise calls the NC-09 a ‘swing district’

State Sen. Dan Bishop is running for North Carolina’s 9th District seat, which Republican leaders are now calling a “swing district.” (Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call)

Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district.”

President Donald Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016, but Republican outside groups have spent more than $6 million on the race, which Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates Toss-up.