Simone Pathé

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé and Bridget Bowman

A Democratic poll of the Mississippi Senate special election shows former Rep. Mike Espy having a path to finishing first in a runoff this fall.

Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, who was appointed earlier this year to replace longtime GOP Sen. Thad Cochran, is running for the remainder of his term this November. Candidates from all parties will run together on the same ballot, and if no one receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the top-two finishers will advance to a late-November runoff.

A Democratic poll of Florida’s 26th District put GOP Rep. Carlos Curbelo ahead of Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell by 7 points. 

The poll, conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s independent expenditure arm, had Curbelo at 48 percent and Mucarsel-Powell at 41 percent.

Tuesday’s primary action in the Upper Midwest and New England set the fall matchups in a handful of key House races and one competitive Senate contest. 

Here are five key takeaways from those results:

Jim Hagedorn has won the Republican nomination for Minnesota’s 1st District, hoping the third time is the charm to win the highly competitive seat. 

With 88 percent of precincts reporting, Hagedorn led state Sen. Carla Nelson 60 percent to 33 percent, when The Associated Press called the race. 

Former state Rep. Joe Randinovich has won the Democratic-Farmer-Labor nomination in Minnesota’s 8th District, which, if the past two cycles are any indication, could be among the most expensive House races this fall.

With 62 percent of precincts reporting, Radinovich led the five-person field with 47 percent of the vote, when The Associated Press called the race. 

State Rep. Ilhan Omar is the likely new member from Minnesota's 5th District, setting her up to be the first Somali-American in Congress.  

With 91 percent of precincts reporting, Omar led the six-way Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party field with 48 percent of the vote, when The Associated Press called the race. 

Teacher Jahana Hayes has won the Democratic nod in Connecticut’s 5th District, defeating the party-endorsed candidate and setting her up to be the likely new member from the safe Democratic seat next year.

With 44 percent of precincts reporting, Hayes led 2006 lieutenant governor nominee Mary Glassman 60 percent to 41 percent, when The Associated Press called the race.

From New England to the upper Midwest, four states are hosting primaries Tuesday.

The most interesting contests are in Wisconsin and Minnesota, which both hold primaries for Senate and for several competitive House seats. And in two safe Democratic districts — one in Minnesota and one in Connecticut — primaries will likely pick new members of Congress.

Looking at a map of potential Democratic takeover opportunities, Republicans’ see their bright spot in Minnesota’s 8th District. Just how bright it is, however, could largely depend on the outcome of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party primary on Tuesday.

There are few House districts that have attracted more outside spending during the previous two cycles than Minnesota’s 8th, where DFL Rep. Rick Nolan has twice defeated businessman Stewart Mills — the last time by just half a point while President Donald Trump was carrying the seat by 16 points. 

New York Republican Rep. Chris Collins, who was arrested and indicted on charges related to securities fraud earlier this week, has suspended his re-election campaign.

“Democrats are laser focused on taking back the House, electing Nancy Pelosi Speaker and then launching impeachment proceedings against President Trump,” Collins said in a statement Saturday. “They would like nothing more than to elect an ‘Impeach Trump’ Democrat in this District, which is something that neither our country or my party can afford.”

Jim Hagedorn has done this before — three times, in fact.

The Minnesota Republican has never won any of those congressional races in the 1st District, but he’s trying again this year. Hagedorn came within a point of defeating Democratic-Farmer-Labor Rep. Tim Walz in 2016, and now that it’s an open seat — Walz is running for governor — Hagedorn sees another opening.

The super PAC backed by House Republican leadership is opening six new field offices in seats the GOP is trying to hold this fall. 

Congressional Leadership Fund is adding offices in Illinois, Kansas, North Carolina and Texas, bringing its total number of offices around the country to 40. 

Welcome to At the Races! You can keep track of House and Senate races with this weekly newsletter by subscribing here. We want to hear what you think. Email us at attheraces@cqrollcall.com with your questions, tips or candidate sightings. — Simone Pathé and Bridget Bowman

After winning the Democratic nomination Tuesday night in Michigan’s 13th District — a safe Democratic seat — former Michigan state Rep. Rashida Tlaib is set to make history as the first Muslim woman elected to Congress.

But she may not be the next person to hold the open seat, which longtime Democratic Rep. John Conyers Jr. vacated late last year over allegations of sexual harassment.

There have been 11 special elections for the U.S. Congress in the last two years, and they all have one thing in common: Democrats have performed better than the partisan breakdown would suggest. Political Theater host Jason Dick breaks it all down with senior political writer Simone Pathé and elections analyst Nathan L. Gonzales.

The special election in Ohio’s 12th District remained too close to call Wednesday, with Republican Troy Balderson narrowly leading Democrat Danny O’Connor.

But the competitiveness of the race in the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s contest and the tighter-than-expected margin offered several takeaways for the next three months.

Democrats are targeting five House seats in Michigan, and the general election matchups started to take shape Tuesday night. 

Voters in two safe Democratic open seats also went to the polls to pick their nominees Tuesday, one of whom, former state Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is set to become the first Muslim woman to serve in Congress.